Given the strategic preeminence of the oil and gas industry in Iran's national economy, the present study endeavors to formulate a systematic approach to contract selection within its supply chain management by synergistically integrating a decision matrix, grey numbers, and pairwise comparisons. Specifically, it addresses the core research question of which criteria are paramount in contractor selection and which contractual model prevails when evaluated via hybrid MCDM techniques and grey theory. This inquiry serves to bridge the prevailing methodological lacuna in domestic scholarship, which has historically relied on subjective, intuition-driven, single-criterion assessments that lack explicit mechanisms for modeling and mitigating uncertainty.
Drawing upon criteria distilled from in-depth expert interviews, this paper employs a hybrid multi-criteria grey decision-making approach (GMARCOS) to conduct a realistic evaluation and prioritization of oil and gas contracts against the backdrop of Iran's volatile economic landscape. The results unequivocally demonstrate that "macroeconomic and political risks" constitute the predominant determinant in the decision-making calculus, followed sequentially by financial, technical, and managerial metrics. This hierarchical salience underscores the overarching dominance of exogenous environmental instability over intrinsic contractual efficiency. Consequently, the IPC model emerged as the preeminent contractual option, having achieved a robust equilibrium among flexibility, risk mitigation, and investment attractiveness. Conversely, the PSC, despite its superior theoretical performance, was relegated to second place due to substantive institutional impediments and structural constraints. Furthermore, EPC/EPCF frameworks were identified as operationally proficient alternatives, whereas Buyback and service-oriented contracts were designated as lower-priority options.
Collectively, the findings corroborate that the judicious selection of contracts in Iran's petroleum sector is not anchored to a monolithic paradigm; rather, it should be meticulously calibrated according to the ambient levels of uncertainty, the severity of environmental risks, and the adaptive agility inherent in each contractual design. This nuanced perspective accentuates the critical imperative of integrating grey systems theory and multi-criteria decision frameworks into future strategic policymaking.